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I have never seen so few potential deals come along as at the end of 2023, beginning of 2024.
Marcel Vlaar, RSM Netherlands
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After the COVID period, we actually ended up in a kind of new normal that we are still in now. Volatility has now fallen somewhat, but growth has not returned again today. Many sectors are still under pressure and as a result the deal volume is also declining, although this depends on the sector.
Karel Pinxten, Deloitte
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In the coming year there will be an increase in deal volume, but at first it will rather be a small increase. It will take half a year to a year before we will see it really picking up again. Private equity has an enormous amount of dry powder and they have portfolio entities that they have had for many years and want to divest. They need a good economic environment to do so. So, I’m still a bit prudent for the next months, but rather optimistic after that.
Veronique Gillis, PwC Belgium
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In private equity, we're starting to see a trend where funds need to begin disinvesting. While this can be postponed for a year or two, it can't be delayed much longer, especially as new funds are being raised.
Hans Swinnen, 3d-investors
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When it comes to secondaries, the signals are mixed. They were performing well until the last quarter, which saw the worst performance among all asset classes. That said, I still expect an increase.
Hossein Araghi, Lyvia Group
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The competition for high-quality assets is fierce. Buyers are much more prepared now; they've done their due diligence on the market and landscape and have gained deep industry insights. This is great for the companies being sold as they get to choose between well-informed buyers.
Ida Kuijken, Fortino Capital
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Transactions are made more difficult by all the FDI foreign investment regimes that have been introduced across Europe. It is becoming increasingly common that we have to make a separate report in four or five countries in Europe.
Jan-Hendrik Horsmeier, Clifford Chance
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NLFI recently published its progress report on de Volksbank referring to the potential privatization of de Volksbank, which could result in a significant transaction. The Dutch government recently reduced its stake in ABN AMRO, leading to speculation about a possible takeover. I believe it’s likely we’ll see more activity in the financial sector.
Lieke van der Velden, NautaDutilh
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I expect to see the most activity in the energy transition sector, ICT, and agriculture. The energy sector is currently seeing a lot of developments around solutions for grid congestion. In ICT, there is always significant activity. The agricultural sector is catching up after previous delays caused by the energy crisis.
Tom Snijckers, Oaklins Netherlands
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Capabilities, or access to new processes and talent, are a top driver. This reflects the ongoing challenge of a tight labor market. Consolidation, aimed at cost savings, remains an important driver, especially in sectors where economies of scale are crucial. Creativity, access to R&D and innovation, completes the top 3 deal drivers, underscoring the importance of innovation capacity in modern business strategies.
Sander Neeteson, ABN AMRO
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As always, having a clear strategic vision is essential for value creation in deals. Due diligence is also crucial. While it won’t solve every issue, it significantly reduces surprises. When it comes to value creation, it’s about focusing and having the time to grow and transform. You don’t want to waste time solving preventable problems. Strong leadership is also key. Having a vision is great, but you absolutely need strong CEOs to execute it.
Richard Reis, Argos Wityu
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The regulations and regulatory pressure on ESG are increasing. Buyers will find it enjoyable to purchase a company that already has a good ESG policy and is or will become compliant. This will also increasingly be a focus for W&I insurers.
Gülsüm Aslan, Risk Capital Advisors
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France is particularly challenging without boots on the ground due to trade unions and specific regulations related to organizations and legislation. The US can also present difficulties, especially with closing mechanisms. In Europe, lockbox mechanisms are becoming more common, where financials are based on audited results, but in the U.S., they still rely on closing accounts, which can add time and complexity. In Germany, taxes often present significant hurdles in deals.
Marco Gulpers, ING
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The impact of cyber and tech risks on the ability to create value is enormous and is currently too often neglected in the process. Attention is being paid to this, but it is based on policies and scripts. And not on discovering actual vulnerabilities. This is going to change!
Peter Zwijnenburg, Aon
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In terms of due diligence, AI is really making an impact. If you upload 100 contracts, AI can identify important clauses, such as change-of-control provisions, almost instantly. This helps in determining which contracts could affect a deal.
Niek Kolkman, KPMG
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